The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS Quick QuoteGS - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 15, 2026, before the opening bell.

GS’s first nine-month performance was impressive, driven by strong investment banking (IB) and trading, and solid revenue growth in the Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management divisions. Yet, the rise in expenses was concerning.

Goldman has a strong history of earnings surprises. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 21.28%.

Earnings Surprise History

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let us see how GS is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $14.54 billion, calling for a 4.8% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has been revised upward to $11.69 per share. The projection suggests a decline of 2.2% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

Estimate Revision Trend

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Goldman's Recent Developments

This month, Goldman announced an agreement to end its long-standing partnership with Apple and transition the Apple Card program and associated accounts to JPMorgan (JPM Quick QuoteJPM - Free Report) . The transaction is expected to increase Goldman’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) by 46 cents. This reflects the release of $2.48 billion in loan loss reserves recorded in provisions for credit losses, partially offset by a $2.26-billion reduction in net revenues related to markdowns on the outstanding credit card loan portfolio and contract termination obligations, as well as $38 million in associated expenses.

Also, Goldman acquired Industry Ventures, a leading venture capital platform that invests across all stages of the venture capital lifecycle. The move underscores Goldman’s strategic intent to expand its exposure to the innovation economy and further solidify its position in the global alternatives market. The acquisition strengthened GS’s $540 billion alternatives business, which spans private equity, growth capital, infrastructure, credit and real estate.

Factors to Shape GS’s Q4 Results

Market-Making Revenues: The fourth quarter saw solid client activities and market volatility. Major factors that impacted the trading business in the quarter included the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, a dip in consumer sentiment, easing monetary policy and a dominant artificial intelligence (AI) theme. Additionally, volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Therefore, Goldman's market-making revenues are likely to have witnessed a rise in the quarter to be reported.

IB Fees: Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the fourth quarter of 2025 surged impressively from the lows of April and May that followed President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. The quarter saw a rise in M&A volume, driven by an easing of the buyer-seller valuation gap, lower capital costs and a focus on scale and AI integration. This, along with Goldman’s leadership in the IB space, is also likely to have supported advisory fees to some extent in the quarter to be reported.

The IPO market in the fourth quarter performed impressively, with a notable increase in the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised. Several factors, including moderating inflation, lower rates and the ongoing AI boom, drove the rise. Also, global bond issuance volume was solid. As such, GS’s leadership position in worldwide announced and completed M&As, equity and equity-related offerings is likely to have provided it an edge over its peers, offering support to the company’s quarterly IB revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, suggesting a 27.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

Net Interest Income (NII): Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for overall loans was robust in the fourth quarter. This is likely to have aided Goldman's loan growth.

Also, the Fed reduced interest rates by 75 basis points in the fourth quarter. Hence, a solid lending scenario and stabilizing funding/deposit costs are likely to have supported GS’s NII in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $3.3 billion, suggesting a 39.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

Expenses: Goldman’s investments in technology and market development expenses for business expansion, along with a rise in transaction-based expenses due to higher client activity are anticipated to have led to increased expenses in the to-be-reported quarter. In addition, GS will incur one-time contract termination charges and transition-related expenses tied to winding down the Apple credit card business in the fourth quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for Goldman

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GS this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

Goldman has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

GS carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

GS’s Price Performance & Valuation

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman's shares outperformed the industry, the S&P 500 index, and its close peer, JPMorgan, while underperforming Morgan Stanley (MS Quick QuoteMS - Free Report) . JPMorgan shares rose 4.6% and Morgan Stanley rallied 14.8%.

Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let us look at the value GS offers investors at the current levels.

Currently, Goldman is trading at 16.98X forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E). Meanwhile, the industry’s forward earnings multiple sits at 15.35X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat expensive compared with the industry average. Its peer, JPMorgan, is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 15.44X while Morgan Stanley is trading at 17.63X.

Price-to-Earnings F12M

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How to Play Goldman Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

GS continues to streamline its operations as it retreats from underperforming, non-core consumer banking ventures and sharpens its focus on core strengths — particularly asset and wealth management business. This strategic pivot is designed to create a more stable and recurring revenue base.

A robust M&A backdrop and a healthy deal pipeline continue to underpin the firm’s IB momentum. The company is embedding AI across operations, and advisory is lifting productivity, improving operating leverage and shifting the revenue mix toward higher-fee, data-driven businesses.

In pursuing growth across business segments, operational efficiency remains central to Goldman’s strategy. The company is progressing well toward achieving its mid-term goals of a 14-16% return on equity and a 60% efficiency ratio. 

While Goldman’s fundamentals and growth prospects remain solid, investors may want to exercise patience. Rising expenses and a relatively high valuation suggest limited near-term upside.

To get clarity and possibly an appealing entry point, those interested in adding the GS stock to their portfolios may be better off waiting until after the quarterly results are released. Those who already own the GS stock can consider retaining it because it is less likely to disappoint over the long term.